Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament
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Archived from the IMDb Discussion Forums — Politics
правда — 3 years ago(August 07, 2022 08:19 PM)
A contest in forecasting political, economic, and social issues.
When you sign up to play, you will get 1,000 of what we call Salem bucks (S$1,000) to distribute across markets as you wish. For example, one question asks whether Republicans will take the House of Representatives in 2022. We’ve set the price at 88 cents, corresponding to an 88% chance. Buy “yes” or “no” based on what you think will happen. You can buy based on the current price or place limit orders that depend on future price movements. For example, if you think there is an 85% chance Republicans will take the House, you can order some shares at that price, and the system will automatically buy them for you if and when it falls to that level (alternatively, as of this writing you can just buy “no” at 12 cents, since you think “no” should be at 15 cents). Gains and losses will depend on the prices at which you buy and sell shares until each market settles, at which point there will be payouts to those who own winning shares, at S$1 per share. Earnings can be reinvested. Participants will be ranked by how many Salem bucks they have accumulated by the end of the tournament on July 31, 2023.
Some of the questions:
I don't think I have any special skill in forecasting but will give it a try anyway.